Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Domestic
Chg (%) (Pts)
(Close)
Market Cues
Indices
BSE Sensex
-0.4
-162
38,700
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Nifty
-0.6
-62
11,604
US Stocks initially moved to the downside but regained ground over the course of
Mid Cap
-0.8
-112
15,397
the trading session on Monday. The major averages climbed well off their worst
Small Cap
-0.4
-60
14,986
levels of the day, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reaching positive territory late
Bankex
-0.8
-250
33,501
in the session. The Dow fell 0.3 percent to 26,341.02 while the Nasdaq rose 0.2
percent to 7,953.
Global Indices
Chg (%) (Pts)
(Close)
U.K. markets were subdued on Monday and the pound traded in a narrow range
Dow Jones
-0.3
-84
26,341
after talks on a Brexit compromise stalled on Friday. The FTSE 100 was down by
0.2% to 7,435.
Nasdaq
0.2
16
7,953
FTSE
-0.2
-13
7,435
On domestic front, Indian shares gave up early gains to end with modest losses on
Nikkei
0.4
83
21,806
Monday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key corporate earnings
announcements due this week and the first phase of 2019 general elections
Hang Seng
(0.2)
(50)
29,936
beginning on April 11. The benchmark BSE Sensex was ended down by 0.4% to
Shanghai Com
0.9
30
3,247
38,700 at the end of trading session.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
1,511
1,145
News Analysis
Advances
Declines
1,072
638
GIC sells DLF's 70 million shares in block deal for Rs 1,344 crore
155
118
Unchanged
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
2,709
NSE
30,164
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (`
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
Cr)
CMP
Target
Upside
FII
(895)
822
(199)
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
*MFs
(518)
5,097
6,274
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
691
867
25.5
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
387
460
18.9
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
245
330
34.7
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,396
1,479
5.9
124
12.7
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
409
486
18.8
TATASTEELPP
92
9.8
More Top Picks on Pg4
687
7.6
96
6.6
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
GDL
138
6.5
Date
Region Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Mar 26, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Mar 27, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
132
-8-6
Mar 27, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
DLF
184
-8.4
Mar 30, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
Mar 30, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
926
-5.4
More Events on Pg7
858
-4.9
RCOM
3
-4.8
As on Apr 8, 2019
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
News Analysis
GIC sells DLF's 70 million shares in block deal for Rs 1,344 crore
GIC, Singapore government’s sovereign wealth fund, on Monday sold
70
for around Rs 1,344 crore. The shares have been bought by existing investors who
After the block deal broke, DLF share prices cracked by almost 8.4 per cent to
close at Rs
184.60. “As a long-term investor, GIC has steadily grown our
investments in DLF, one of India’s most established real estate developers, since
2011. Today, we remain invested significantly in DLF across various investment
groups in our diversified portfolio. GIC will continue to strengthen our partnership
Mah, senior vice-president, corporate affairs and communications.
In 2016-17, GIC through its property arm had bought 70 million shares of DLF.
GIC continues to hold its larger investments in DLF through commercial and
residential arms. Their investment in DLF is valued at $1.8 billion. “This appears to
be a trading call based on their portfolio optimisation and should not affect the
strong relationship we have,” DLF spokesperson said. The company last month
announced the launch of a QIP programme to raise Rs 3,175 crore. This is part of
an earlier decision to cut its then massive debt, of Rs 28,500 crore only two years
earlier. With the latest step, the aim is to bring this down to Rs 1,600 crore. The
QIP plan was approved by the board of directors in mid-December
2018,
approved by the shareholders a month after. The debt total at end-December was
Rs 7,224 crore. Other than the QIP, the promoters would put in another Rs 2,500
crore, thus reducing the total of debt to a little less than Rs 1,600 crore.
Economic and Political News
CAG raps I-T dept for spending Rs 1,000 cr on rent despite having own land
Thermal power ends FY19 on a glum note, only 29% of target achieved
Chennai gets new Alternate Dispute Resolution Centre for business discords
I-T detects Rs 281-cr racket of slush funds in MP raids; recovers Rs 15 cr
Corporate News
TPG Capital, Etihad, NIIF likely to bid for cash-strapped Jet Airways
Passenger vehicle sales up 2.7% in FY19, slowest in 4 years: Siam
GIC sells DLF's 70 million shares in block deal for Rs 1,344 crore
Ericsson will have to refund Rs 550 cr if RCom insolvency proceeds: NCLAT
Zydus receives tentative approval from USFDA for Tofacitinib tablets
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
6,672
691
867
25.5
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,51,729
387
460
18.9
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,239
409
486
18.8
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast
1,634
58
95
63.8
requirement and
15 year long radio broadcast
Limited
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,096
453
606
33.8
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,14,679
7,119
10,820
52.0
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,442
264
424
60.6
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,626
725
1,000
37.9
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
21,926
98
151
54.1
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,036
245
330
34.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other
HDFC Bank
6,26,837
2,288
2,500
9.3
income aided PAT growth. The Strong liability
franchise and healthy capitalisation provides
strong earning visibility. At the current market
price, the bank is trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
81,808
665
1,050
57.9
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,598
835
984
17.8
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
Bata India
18,191
1,396
1,479
5.9
of ~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly
due to new product launches, higher number
of stores addition and focus on women’s high
growth segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
27,726
1,238
1,764
42.5
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline in
credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,086
184
327
77.7
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,710
1,184
1,400
18.2
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
46,053
781
890
14.0
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
28,632
657
763
16.1
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
9,897
8,493
9,250
8.9
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Source: Company, Angel Research
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,522
68
120
76.5
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
25,730
87
156
79.3
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,755
280
360
28.6
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,089
1,401
2,178
55.5
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,848
2,330
2,500
7.3
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures
plywood & allied products and medium density
fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR
Greenply Industries
2,089
170
256
50.6
of ~14% to ~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due
to healthy growth in plywood & lamination
business on the back of strong brand and
distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
30,382
148
210
41.9
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
61,835
260
290
11.5
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Mar 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
Mar 20, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
Mar 20, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
Mar 21, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Mar 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
Mar 22, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
Mar 23, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
Mar 23, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
Mar 24, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
Mar 25, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
Mar 25, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
Mar 26, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Mar 26, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
Mar 27, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
Mar 27, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
Mar 28, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
Mar 28, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
Mar 29, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
87424
11.2
10.4
15.1
Russia
Micex
2352
-5.0
1.3
13.0
India
Nifty
10387
-5.6
-8.5
-0.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2603
-7.7
-9.5
-23.8
South Africa
Top 40
46141
-6.9
-10.1
-12.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42340
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
923
-2.4
-1.2
-8.3
Malaysia
KLCI
1704
-3.6
-4.4
-2.2
Thailand
SET 50
1104
-4.7
-0.5
0.8
USA
Dow Jones
25116
-5.8
-1.2
6.8
UK
FTSE
7085
-5.2
-8.0
-5.9
Japan
Nikkei
21770
-10.8
-3.8
-3.4
Germany
DAX
11448
-7.2
-10.6
-14.8
France
CAC
5093
-7.5
-7.6
-7.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 02 Nov, 2018
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
April 09, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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